From the life in Petrograd in 1920, by Mstislav Dobuzhinsky While he put up a noble effort to distract the world, with foreign invasions and topless photos, Vladimir Putin's Russia may be on its last legs. Here is a summary.
The world is producing oil at a faster rate than ever before, driving down its value. When a country puts all of its eggs in one basket - the way Russia does with crude - a steep drop in per-barrel prices will leave no juicy omelette behind.
It has been a good run though. At its peak a year ago, Russia had over $515 billion sitting around in government accounts. That's foreign currency too; the good stuff you can use to purchase yachts and pay off loans.
But the oil price shock means Russia's economy is headed for a recession in 2015. That foreign reserve of cash is already down to $419 billion. The rouble, Russia's currency, is losing value as quickly as oil. Printing more roubles wont solve the problem.
While Putin was earning "most powerful man" awards for stoking civil war in neighboring countries, the real most powerful man was quietly breaking Putin's back. Barack Obama and the government of the United States of America worked all the backrooms to put in place sanctions against companies that are run by the friends of the Russian government elite.
No longer allowed to openly do business with foreigners, companies like oil giant Rosneft are coming to the government for a bail out. As that foreign cash reserve dwindles, the government will have to dip into money meant for the pensions of retiring workers. When THAT runs out, it'll be a steep rise in taxes.
Business people who aren't buddies with the Kremlin inner-circle, and in a normal country would regularly stimulate the internal economy, know their companies can fall victim to corrupt officials or outright government seizures. Investors are abandoning Russia like worms from the wet ground: $125 billion left the country in 2014. Putin's new promises that private cash will be safe at home ring hollow in the face of all his previous actions.
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So will this be enough to see a change in government? No one in the world endures pain as patiently as the Russian people. Half a million Russians died at Stalingrad before the Nazis were pushed away. It took centuries for the abusive Romanov dynasty to be overthrown and decades for the decrepit USSR to crumble completely.
That famous resiliency may not be there still. Binge drinking is killing Russian men. HIV/AIDS rates are rising, despite a global downturn. A fertility rate of 1.59 births per woman means there won't be many more Russians around to pay future taxes.
Protests this decade have been quickly stamped out, and anyways were limited to relatively well-educated urban dwellers. Populist measures like homophobic laws, athletic triumphs and weak plays to "get the empire back together" placate the large body of Russians that back Putin and co. politically.
The likely scenario seems not to be a grand, prosperous Russia, nor another political revolution, but rather a slow fizzling out.
The world is producing oil at a faster rate than ever before, driving down its value. When a country puts all of its eggs in one basket - the way Russia does with crude - a steep drop in per-barrel prices will leave no juicy omelette behind.
It has been a good run though. At its peak a year ago, Russia had over $515 billion sitting around in government accounts. That's foreign currency too; the good stuff you can use to purchase yachts and pay off loans.
But the oil price shock means Russia's economy is headed for a recession in 2015. That foreign reserve of cash is already down to $419 billion. The rouble, Russia's currency, is losing value as quickly as oil. Printing more roubles wont solve the problem.
While Putin was earning "most powerful man" awards for stoking civil war in neighboring countries, the real most powerful man was quietly breaking Putin's back. Barack Obama and the government of the United States of America worked all the backrooms to put in place sanctions against companies that are run by the friends of the Russian government elite.
No longer allowed to openly do business with foreigners, companies like oil giant Rosneft are coming to the government for a bail out. As that foreign cash reserve dwindles, the government will have to dip into money meant for the pensions of retiring workers. When THAT runs out, it'll be a steep rise in taxes.
Business people who aren't buddies with the Kremlin inner-circle, and in a normal country would regularly stimulate the internal economy, know their companies can fall victim to corrupt officials or outright government seizures. Investors are abandoning Russia like worms from the wet ground: $125 billion left the country in 2014. Putin's new promises that private cash will be safe at home ring hollow in the face of all his previous actions.
--
So will this be enough to see a change in government? No one in the world endures pain as patiently as the Russian people. Half a million Russians died at Stalingrad before the Nazis were pushed away. It took centuries for the abusive Romanov dynasty to be overthrown and decades for the decrepit USSR to crumble completely.
That famous resiliency may not be there still. Binge drinking is killing Russian men. HIV/AIDS rates are rising, despite a global downturn. A fertility rate of 1.59 births per woman means there won't be many more Russians around to pay future taxes.
Protests this decade have been quickly stamped out, and anyways were limited to relatively well-educated urban dwellers. Populist measures like homophobic laws, athletic triumphs and weak plays to "get the empire back together" placate the large body of Russians that back Putin and co. politically.
The likely scenario seems not to be a grand, prosperous Russia, nor another political revolution, but rather a slow fizzling out.
